Cheltenham's Showcase Meeting Preview

Friday 19th October witnesses the return of jump racing to its spiritual home. The jump racing community descends on Prestbury Park after the summer break, all eager to to see those tapes go up for the first race, a sign that confirms Cheltenham is alive again after a dormant 5 months. The highlight of the 'Showcase' meeting is the Betvictor.com Handicap Chase over 2miles 4 furlongs on Saturday. I am going to attempt to find you the winner following the 5 day declarations which were released yesterday.

Entries For The Betvictor.com Handicap Chase

First of all, lets look at the previous winners of the race. I can't stress highly enough how useful it is to do this! I was pleasantly surprised to find out that this is the first step Pricewise supremo Tom Segal takes when going about tipping, great minds as they say! The point of doing this is, in the words of Tom Segal: 'To find out what type of horse wins the race'. Once you've found this out, you can start to dissect the race looking for horses which you think may fit that trend.

Previous Winners:

2011: Billie Magern: Age 7, Weight 10-11, Rating 133.
2010: Edgbriar: Age 8, Weight 10-13, Rating 137.
2009: Poquelin: Age 6, Weight 11-12, Rating 139.
2008: Ouzbeck: Age 6, Weight 11-10, Rating 142.
2007: Knowhere: Age 9, Weight 11-12, Rating 144.

Edgbriar

Previous winners would suggest you need a horse aged between 6-9, but most of the horses entered will be within that bracket. To narrow it down further, look at how many of the horses were second season chasers when they won the race. All 5 of them! We need a second season chaser.

When looking at weight, the 2011 and 2010 winners carried much lower weights than those who won the race before 2010. The same profile horse has been winning the race but has been carrying a lower weight, this would suggest that better horses (that have a higher rating) have been running in the race in the last two runnings. Consequently, I would take the most recent renewals of the race as the ones to take your guide from. Weights carried aren't always the best trend to follow as they can fluctuate year to year depending on what horses are entered.

A more reliable trend to follow is rating. We are looking for a horse that is a second season chaser which, looking at 2010 and 2011, is rated between 132-140 (give or take a pound).

Two horses have made my short-list.

Havingotascoobydo
Second season chaser who performed admirably last year over fences and hurdles. He was on the go in October at Ffos Las, Aintree and Wetherby. He was a very easy winner at Ffos Las and Wetherby, but he was a faller whilst favourite in a novice chase at Aintree. Remember when Ruby Walsh got a whip ban after getting Edgardo Sol home by a nose? It was that race. From there he went to the Open Meeting at Cheltenham and ran a good second to Tanks For That, the subsequent Grand Annual runner-up.  He picked up an injury during his preparations for the Festival last year, this means he comes into this campaign as a fresh horse - he has won first time out in 2010 and 2011. He is rated 137 and is a 7 year old. He looks unexposed and has decent course form, we know he runs well at this time of the year which is a bonus. He should go well.

Mad Moose
Mad Moose went slightly under the radar last year, I think his form is a bit better than it looks at first glance.  He was 3rd at this meeting last year in a 3 mile novice chase when he didn't quite stay, so he was reverted back to 2 1/2 miles. Instead of running in novice chases, he was tried in some of the most competitive 2 1/2 handicap chases of the year. His effort in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham where he was 8th, beaten 22 lengths behind Medermit and co wasn't the worst. Neither was his next run behind Salut Flo at the Festival, he was 8th once again beaten 20 lengths. He was beaten a long way, but the task he faces this weekend will be much easier. He returned to Cheltenham in April to win a handicap novices chase when he gave weight all around to stay on past Arctic Ben and Take Of Shoc's to record a 3 length victory. In terms of jumping, he was relatively hit and miss last year which would be a concern, but you would expect him to be improving in that department as a second season chaser. He is rated 138 and is also an 8 year old. I think he may still be on the upgrade and he is resident of the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable who have saddled 2 of the last 5 winners of this race. The stable is bang in from again this term which is a huge plus. He has winning course form and all things considered, although you take a punt on his jumping, he looks to have strong claims. Additionally, he is likely to be a bigger price than Havingotascoobydo so keep an eye out!

I can't split the two of them. I think my final decision will be heavily influenced by the market, to be honest it depends what price I can get on the day.

Selection: Mad Moose
Insurance: Havingotascoobydo

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter: @JoshRWDown